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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-08-16T19:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-16T19:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48119/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-08-16T20:03Z. It is also seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The majority of this CME was missed in real time by SOHO LASCO C3 due to a data gap between downlinks. This CME is associated with a C8.2 class flare from AR 14506 (N10W42) that peaked at 2026-08-16T19:28Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-20T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/48122/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-16T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=42.0, Lat.=22.0, Speed=362.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2026-08-17T05:41Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-20T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-19T03:34Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-20T06:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-21T00:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-23T04:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-21T00:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-23T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260817_054100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 85.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-16T23:00Z

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